Esim - 转 个人对亚投行的浅见2
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个人认为,亚投行是中国玩的一个阳谋,中国就是要建立一个中国主导下的世界性银行,动摇美元霸权的根基。
美国可以阻扰西方国家、韩国、澳大利亚或者其他国家的加入,甚至可以毫无风范的跳出来喊话反对,视加入的国家如同背叛。
这完全没有关系,中国也根本不用在意他们加入不加入。因为西方国家加入,可以让美国的美元体系动摇,西方国家不加入,动摇美国的国际威望,让美国挥霍自己已经不多的外交资源——亚洲基础建设这么大的蛋糕就基本上被中国一家吞掉了——不但西方公司没法参加这些项目,连放贷的利润都没有一分钱拿,只能看着其他参与国家跟着喝口肉骨头汤,只能看着中国吃肉喝汤,恐怕还会打几个饱嗝给他们看看。
这样的结果,恐怕不用中国在动用外交资源去游说他们,他们都会主动拿着支票来求加入的——未来数万亿美元计算的大项目,未来十年二十年全球最大的基建市场,真要是放跑了,没法分一杯羹,恐怕西方国家的财团会把他们生吞了。
哪怕为了能在以后的招投标中能占有一席之地,也得加入亚投行这趟列车,没有软座,也得弄个硬座,至于站票,那就留给那些没有赶上这班车的国家吧——好吧,我说的就是韩国。
本来中国特别给韩国留了坐位,但看起来韩国是不打算买票上车了,那以后就只能享受站票了。
英法德意加上后面的卢森堡、瑞士,或者澳大利亚、新西兰等国各有其目的性,英国虽然宣称:“英国加入亚投行是为了更好地帮助中国融入以规则为基础的全球体系,而不是鼓励北京方面在没有西方国家参与的情况下继续推进”,不过其真实目的我看更多的是为了和德国争夺未来人民币市场的主导性。
英国现在几乎都靠金融业吃饭,而人民币离岸中心和中国的金融业务显然是英国争夺的主要目标,未来英国经济增长的关键点。
美国在IMF和世行中,霸道的站着绝对地位不肯放手,其他西方国家吃够了这种霸权的苦头,为何要为美元霸权而牺牲自己呢?
美国为了打压欧元,毫不犹豫的逼迫欧洲国家打了一场几乎是自杀性的科索沃战争,毁掉了欧元的稳定性,欧洲国家为何要为美元霸权牺牲自己的利益?
既然美国的金融霸权归根结底只为美国自己的国家利益服务,一旦危机爆发,不分盟国和友邦,一律都成为牺牲和打击的对象,并不在乎集体和全局;那么作为盟国的他们为什么还要为了美国的利益而牺牲本国的利益呢?有谁会傻到赔上老本去支撑一个到头来反会伤害到自己的霸权呢?
所以英国几乎毫不犹豫地抢在法德之前,卖掉了美国,向我们充分展现了老牌帝国主义的节操——那就是没有节操。没有永恒的朋友,只有永恒的利益。
无外乎是利益二字,只要利益足够,英国佬是不介意卖掉任何人的,同样,只要利益足够,英国佬也会卖掉任何人。
有了英国开头,后面的德国、法国、意大利等等纷纷卖掉美国也是完全在意料之内的事情了。
德国、法国、意大利在工业上都有一定的可取性,需要在未来的建设中分一杯羹,买一张入场券,还能拿到利息,参与进来自然不是问题。
不过,估计德国会有点后悔没有早跳出来,让英国抢了头筹,在未来争夺欧洲人民币最大离岸中心的位置上,占了先机。德国可以在机械等项目上占到便宜,想来也会弥补这份缺陷了,再加上德国总理默克尔访日说得那些话是相当有意思的,乃至于让日本人的笑容都充满了尴尬。
澳大利亚的经济和中国绑得太深,以至于有个笑话说:澳大利亚的总理根本不用制定任何计划,只需要祈祷中国五年计划成功就可以了。
不是美国阻拦,恐怕早就跳上这班车了。而韩国也一样,不过韩国的问题更复杂,所以才扭扭咧咧的提出一些不切实际的条件,显示自己抵抗了,至于最后会不会加入还说不好。

有人说,亚投行注定搞不成的,还以金砖银行做为例子,说要黄,我只想说,他脑洞太大了。
金砖银行实际上就是中国借着金砖五国名头搞出来的,这里面唯一有支付能力的其实只有中国,印度、俄罗斯和巴西三国勉强能提供一部分资金,而南非几乎不存在支付能力,首批1000亿的资金分配是中国出410亿,印度、俄罗斯和巴西各自出180亿,南非出50亿。光看这个出资比例就知道是啥回事了,实际上就是中国投资其他四国基础建设——当然,这种投资是有利益的,国际间的政策性贷款,往往都附有苛刻的条件。
而金砖银行在14年末才举行了首次临时股东会议,确定了总部设置在上海,印度也表示会尽快提名总裁人选,要到15年末才开始投入运作,真不知道黄了的说法是从何而起的?也许是屁股问题吧。

亚投行在今年年底投入运作实际上太快了一点,这种国际性银行,前期谈判的扯皮工作是少不了的,当然,如果中国可以不顾及其他参与国,和最开始的东盟等几个国家,加上沙特等狗大户一起的话,也不是不可能。
说到沙特,其实做为国际金融市场的大玩家之一,也同中国一样陷入美元的风波,这次和中国一拍即合,另立中央未尝和这没有关系。

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