Esim - 转 个人对亚投行的浅见1
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本人不是什么经济学专家教授,自然也不是什么大牛。不过有人看了我写的一些浅见,想更多的了解一下,所以把自己的发言整理一下,重新发出来。

在开始之前,先解释一下几个问题。
第一个问题:中国为什么要成立亚洲基础投资银行(以下简称为亚投行)?
首先,中国已是世界最大的外汇储备国,美国最大的债权国(最新的数字,日本和中国现在已经很接近,中国略多一点),也是全球第二大经济体,但在美国所主导的现行国际金融秩序中,却未能反映这个经济现实,而当前机制也越来越不能适应中国的需要。
根据IMF调整之后的出资额和表决权,中国的出资额是4%,表决权是3.81%,排在美国(17.69,16.75)、日本(6.56,6.23)、德国(6.12,5.81)、英国(4.51,4.29)和法国(4.51,4.29)之后。
而在世界银行的四大机构中,中国的表决权在国际复兴开发银行IBRD是第3位(这个第三位还不到美国的三分之一,美国拥有15.85%的投票权,而中国只有4.4%),国际开发协会IDA第10位,国际金融公司IFC第10位,多边投资担保机构MIGA第6位。
在亚开行中,中国的出资额和表决权分别仅占6.46%和5.47%,均不及日本(15%,15.7%)和美国(14.8%,15.7%)的一半。
中国在这些国际性金融体系中,完全没有合适的地位位置,单纯为了中国自身的权益,还是为了扩大中国的影响力,给人民币向外扩张打下基础,中国都有必要自己牵头来成立一个代表自己权益的世界性银行。
光是这个自身的需求还不够,还得考虑美国的贪婪和霸道。
美国作为以美元为国际货币的世界货币体系中,最主要的受益人,理应维护美元的地位和稳定的,但美国的贪婪与霸权,不但将美元的信誉视为而已,动辄滥发货币,靠美元贬值等办法来转嫁矛盾。
而应对自身的经济矛盾时,往往借用武力做为后盾,通过挑动矛盾,比如著名的科索沃战争,其实就是美国为了压制欧元而挑起的战争。如今的乌克兰问题,更多的是美国为了制造所谓的避风港效应,逼迫热钱流回美国国内而制造出来的危机。

而在世行的实际运作中,特别是针对各种出现危机的国家,提出了大量的政治、经济要求,比如大家比较熟悉的97年亚洲经济危机中,世界银行对泰国、韩国的援助背后,附带了大量的政治、经济条件,借改革泰国、韩国经济之名,让美国的银行完成了渗透,韩国大量的银行等金融企业被掌控在幕后的财团、大银行手中。
从某种意义上来说,这等于是在签下不平等条约,和卖国没有区别,不过一边是国家破产,一边是不平等条约,做为小国来说,似乎也只能签下买过条约了。
在美元霸权和美国在世界银行、IMF等国际经济组织中的吃相之难看,连美国自己的盟友们都看不下去,更离谱的是,IMF改革竟然没美国国会拒之门外,根本不加理会。

亚投行的出现,无疑是给世界各国多一种选择,相对美国的吃相来说,无疑,处在挑战美元霸权位置的中国,其现在的表现要好得多。(至于以后如何,谁又能清楚呢?)
不管是为了中国自身利益,还是诸多小国家,对摆脱美国主导的世行、亚开行或者IMF都有需求,也是为什么当初有那么多亚洲国家参与的原因。

第二个问题:亚投行和金砖国家银行、丝路银行会不会冲突?有没有必要单独成立一家银行。
这个问题其实是两个方面,金砖国家银行和丝路银行都是比较封闭的地区性或者小范围性银行,和亚投行并不冲突。
可以这样说,这三个银行实际上是三步:金砖银行保证中国在金砖国家中的领导权,丝路银行保证中国的大战略,亚欧大陆桥的发展,而亚投行确是保证中国未来很长一段时间的经济利益。
在建立亚投行的时候,估计亚太地区的基础建设大约是8000亿美元,不管这个数字是否正确,至少未来亚洲地区的基础建设投资是一个非常大的蛋糕,专门成立一个亚投行很有必要。
同时,亚投行是一个开放性银行,为了避免这种开放影响到中国对于其他金砖国家和丝路一线其他国家的影响力,避免区域外国家的渗透,有必要把这个银行单独出来。
亚投行中国本身就打算打造成一个开放性银行,让更多的国家在未来亚洲基础建设市场上能分上一杯羹,而且搞不好中国还会主动稀释自己的股份,让更多的国家参与进来,一来可以动摇美帝的西方阵营,二来可以降低发展中国家的融资成本,增大他们对基础建设投资的欲望,以达到多赢的目的。
中国赚了什么?所有的开放项目,无疑中国企业可以分得最肥美的一份肉,现在能和中国企业竞争基础建设的国家真不多了。
首先,中国手里有庞大得已经影响到中国自身的外汇储备,其中大部分是以美元和美国国债的形式存在的,这部分钱具有庞大的财务压力,光靠美国国债的利息收入,实际上根本无法抵销贬值的损失——前面说到所谓避风港效应,不过是美国利用其强大的政治军事实力,不断玩弄世界格局,挑动矛盾使得热钱只能选择美国这个避风港的结果,实际上美国国债的低息收益相当低,但国际上也只有美国国债容量够大,又相对比较保值,才不得不捏着鼻子认了。
把这部分拿出一小部分就足够投资所用。
第二,中国在建筑施工、工程机械、建材等方面都有不小的优势,大型工程对工期等的要求,也是中国公司所能适应的。亚洲国家扩大基础投资,有助于中国企业获得更大市场,特别是这种政策性的贷款,无疑也会附带有限制性条款,更加增强了中国企业的竞争力。
开拓市场无疑是成立亚投行最主要的目的,赚利息那点钱,真不在中国政府的考虑范围内了。第一期500亿的投资,哪怕10%的利息也只有50亿美元——而中国手里的外汇储备哪怕千分之一的汇率变动都有40亿美元的涨跌。
但100亿美元的基础建设投资,往往带动的是数倍以上的经济发展,那是数百亿美元的生意了——修一条公路,不可能给熊跑,必然会带来更多的商业机会,更多的建设、汽车、各种消费——在修路上赚上一道,在之后各种其他商业机会上再赚上一道,再收点利息把财务成本找回来,这生意你觉得如何?
第三,以一个广泛的国际银行,来分摊中国政府在舆论上受到的压力,以前是国开行等国资银行(国开行更是完全国有)在非洲等地大搞投资建设,其整套下来,全都是中国资本,断人财路,无异于杀人父母,自然会有无数的人反对。现在换上一个白手套,同时让更多的人参与进来,变成全球资本的盛宴,谁还会站出来反对?不想活了是吧?

有人说中国张罗了这么久,引入那么多国家,会不会给西方国家做了嫁衣,失去控制权?
先列几个数字,中国在2014年的GDP大约占亚洲总额的40%,日本占大约20%,印度大约占8%,韩国5%。
根据亚投行的初步协议,亚洲区域内国家占总份额的75%,区域外国家占25%,第一批500亿美元。
由于日本不参加,不管韩国等其他亚洲国家如何,中国大约要占到37.5%的份额,而区域外国家——哪怕澳大利亚以亚洲国家身份参加,也只占大约4%的权益。(澳大利亚预计投资大约是20多亿美元,正好占500亿第一步投资的4%左右)
对于37.5%和25%+4%顶多是能保证整个西方发达国家有否决权而已,距离控制权还早得很,而且中国做为外汇储备最多的国家,要稀释,也得看谁被谁稀释的问题。

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