Esim - 罗思义:中国增速是美国3倍 因为美国缺个发改委 ...2
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以上数据表明,在这35年多时间里,中国始终朝着其目标全速发展。国家主席习近平亦公开重复这一目标:“我坚信,到中国共产党成立100年时全面建成小康社会的目标一定能实现,到新中国成立100年时建成富强民主文明和谐的社会主义现代化国家的目标一定能实现,中华民族伟大复兴的梦想一定能实现。”


中国政府用马克思主义框架下的“中国特色社会主义”这一理论来解释中国经济的发展,但并不是所有人都会信服这个说法,所以不妨用林毅夫新近提出的,更专业的经济理论来解释为什么以国际标准来看,中国经济的超高速增长还将持续下去。


林毅夫首先分析了国内因素:“2008年时,中国的人均收入才超过美国人均收入的五分之一。这个差距同1951年时日本与美国差距大致相当,而之后20年里日本的年均增长率是9.2%;这个差距也和1977年时美国与韩国的差距相当,之后20年里韩国的年均增长率是7.6%。也可以把它同1967年的美国-新加坡,或者1975年的美国-台湾作比——之后两个地区的年均增长率也很近似。以此类推,在2008年之后的20年里,中国经济的年均增长率应当有大约8%的增长潜力。”


林毅夫指出中国经济潜在平均增长率为8%左右的同时,也考虑到了外部经济因素的影响,短期内经济增长值会有变动。他写道:“外部经济环境并不乐观……因此,中国的经济增长率很可能会低于其年均8%的预期。在政策制定者制定下一个五年计划时,最好将中国经济增长率目标定在7%-7.5%之间,再按照全球经济环境的变动在此区间做出相应的调整。这样一个增长目标有助于稳定就业市场,降低金融风险,也能使中国在2020年时实现收入翻倍的目标。”事实上,中国只要保持年均7%的经济增长速率,就能超过在2010年到2020年间实现经济增长翻一番的目标了。


中国之所以能达成其经济目标,林毅夫给出了解释,这个解释击中了一个当下流行的核心经济学错误,正是这一错误导致那些大行其道经济分析报告漏洞百出。林毅夫分析道:“中国具有凭借内需来维持经济强劲增长的潜力——而不仅仅是居民消费。”


在经济学上,内部“需求”并非如佩蒂斯或中国国内的某些作者所言,是等同于国内消费的。它等同的是消费与投资的总和。


自然地,中国有全球最大的投资资源。如林毅夫所说:“中国的投资资源是源源不断的。中央和地方政府的债务总和加起来低于GDP的一半——低于国际标准。与此同时,中国的私人储蓄总额接近了GDP的一半,国家的外汇储备也达到了4万亿美元。就算处在相对糟糕的外部经济环境中,短期内中国也能靠投资促进就业;而工作机会的增多又拉动了消费。”


美国缺个发改委


但为什么只有中国能够贯彻这些投资计划,而在美国,无数号召增加投资的呼吁总是无疾而终?即便是美国前财政部长 劳伦斯·萨默斯这样的领袖人物的公开呼吁,也还是遭到忽视,原因在于中国的“社会主义市场经济”在核心上是与“资本主义市场经济”截然相反。


中国经济中的国有部门并不试图囊括或者管理整个中国经济,但它却强大到足以控制中国的总体投资水平。这样一种结构也许可以用凯恩斯的话来描述:“某种比较全面的社会化投资”能确保“现有投资量的决定权不握在私人手中”。或者也可以用太宗的话来描述:“在改革进程中我们要确保……经济中的公有制成分总是占主导地位。”或者也可以用2013年11月十八届三中全会的报告来概括:“我们必须毫不动摇巩固和发展公有制经济,坚持公有制主体地位,发挥国有经济主导作用。”


但无论何种对公有制经济的描述都不如经济实况来得重要,正如《华尔街日报》精简的结论:“大多数经济体靠拉动财政和货币这两根杠杆来促进经济发展。而中国还有第三个选择。中国的发改委可以让投资项目源源不断地增加。”资本主义经济里缺少这样一种结构,而正是这一成分,一如我们将看到的,在1978年后从根本上决定了中国经济长期发展,并保证了中国在2008年的国际金融危机开始后,表现得比其它经济大国更加亮眼。


相较于中国的“社会主义市场经济”,包括美国在内的所有资本主义市场经济体都缺少发改委这强大的一环。这就是为什么中国经济的发展始终胜过美国,并能在媒体几十年(包括2014年)不断翻炒的“中国经济灾难”的预言中稳如泰山。


另一组数据同样反映出中国经济的真实状况。当媒体上充斥着有关中国经济的悲观报道时,外国公司在中国的投资金额却从2013年的1239亿美元增加到了2014年的1276亿美元。对一般企业而言,它们打交道的对象是资金而非口号,所以它们比媒体更清楚中国的经济状况。


笔者多年的谋生手段,就是向企业提供各国的经济分析(比如中国),而这些分析要比刊在《金融时报》、《华尔街日报》和《经济学人》上的那些文章准确得多。这些出版物上的文章从未说对过,因为那些作者并不理解中国远比西方优越的经济结构,故而他们一再做出错误的预测。


不过也不必感到绝望。比起这些出版物上漏洞百出的文章,2014年中国的实际经济数据再一次表明,如果想得到关于中国未来经济发展的更加准确的预测,应当听听中国顶尖经济学家是怎么在中国媒体上说的,再看看中国自己的经济发展预测究竟是怎样的。


“中国特色社会主义”框架为探讨经济问题留出了相当大的空间,既解决实际问题又注重理论探索。也正因如此,中国当前才会如此重视智库建设。笔者曾经撰文指出所谓“消费带动增长”概念的理论谬误,但由于错误信息流毒甚广,一直没能产生广泛而深入的讨论。所以,希望中国媒体多关注基础性的数据问题,而不是当西方媒体的传话筒。

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