Nominations for candidates for the 46th Congress have now closed ahead of tomorrows Congressional election. Due to a lack of candidates, all 13 candidates will be elected but the distribution and share of the votes is unclear and worth watching. The situation is as follows:
1. The People's Party - 6 - Up 2 from last Election.
2. United Front - 3 - Up 1 from last Election.
3. Rise of UK - 2* - Down 2 from last Election.
4. BobJob's Party Time - 1 - No change from last Election.
5. British-Turkish Brotherhood Party - 1 - No change from last Election.
6. British Patriotic Party - 0 - No change from last Election.
6. British Empire Patriot Party - 0 - No change from last Election.
Total = 13
* = Rise of UK will have a 3rd member of Congress in the form of the President who gets an automatic seat. I have not included him in the above list as this is a list of candidates.
The make up of the next congress is an odd one in that we're seeing the UK's second largest party (and the party of the President), Rise of UK, outnumbered, in terms of candidates, by a much smaller, but very similar party, United Front. In terms of real congress members they're evenly matched (due to the President) but even that seems odd in that a much smaller party is able match one of the most powerful forces in British politics for people willing to serve in congress for that party. It will come down to vote share to really tell us whether Rise of UK faces a threat in future from United Front - The candidate list is just an early indication the general make up of congress rather than in electoral terms - and that should be an exciting bit of the election - to see whether United Front make great gains from Rise of UK, because if so, we could see the Politics of the UK starting to change.
Another interesting story is the come back of The People's Party who have suffered a decline recently but seem to have made somewhat of a comeback in the form of having 2 more candidates than last election but also have far more candidates and therefore congressmen than the nearest opposition, giving them a commanding position in Congress - though not quite a majority.
Bobjob's Party Time and the British Turkish Brotherhood are yet to put a stamp on British Politics in terms of their number of candidates in recent elections but could surprise us when it comes to vote share.
This election may seem mundane and easy to call due to the lack of candidates and so guaranteed make up of congress but when you get down to the nitty-gritty of the parties and their changes in the number of candidates from last election and prior elections and compare them to other parties you start to see the outline of some interesting stories - stories which will be filled in when we have vote data. Although we know who will have how many congressmen, it'll be interesting to see who has command of the country and the electorate and who the electorate think deserves command of the house.
Is this is an election that could change the face of British Politics? Perhaps. Although there are some very interesting trends emerging, it will take a lot to topple the two established parties, and number of candidates in no way corresponds to number of votes - but the trends are also very shocking and very conclusive. This election could go either way and for Rise of UK, it could be a turning point. If they want to hold their dominant position they must beat not only TPP but also United Front. Failure to do that could result in a doubtful future.
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