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筆者很想探討二服管子經濟戰思想,又明白要急於撰寫三大政見的詳細本,但筆者只能忍著,先回應一下廣大讀者對於經濟戰的疑問。

筆者從谷歌大神了解到,很久以前便有人發動過經濟戰,惟當時是收購國幣,所以筆者不詳述。


一言敝之,經濟戰就是國家級狙擊貨幣。

經濟戰目的是透過操控匯價,使國幣貶值,損害敵國經濟,從而使戰爭有利我方。
同時間,可以配合不利消息,使人民跟隨拋售貨幣。
例如國庫不足以穩定匯價、國家戰事捷捷失利、財閥退出本國市場等等
正如筆者前言,貨幣是一種信用,當你不相信時,它便是一張廢紙。

經濟戰與商人狙擊不同,前者目的是摧毀敵國經濟體系,以有利戰事,因此有時候會出現消耗戰,損己害人,後者僅以謀利為目標,損人利己。

必須注意,發動經濟戰之前,一定要明白經濟戰的目的,對方經濟崩塌對您有甚麼好處,從中賺取匯率,還是造成敵方購買力下降,減少輸出,又還是您想以此廉價收購敵國商品,又還是讓敵國財富壓在匯率市場,無法購買戰時物資,又還是以此換取敵國中立?

為何主張控制國幣兌換黃金市場?
1. 收購國幣的話,政府可以印刷以滿足市場需求
2. 所有稅項皆取自國幣,國家本錢較大
3. 黃金流通性大,避免賠了夫人又折兵
4. 收購國幣會導致國幣價值提高,有利敵國經濟
5. 黃金掛單者較貨幣掛單者少



如何操控匯價?
例如我國與馬來西亞開戰,先收購25.4那個,然後3-4人或以上,全部掛單維持在28元價位,可以進行競價,維持在27.899-28水平,製造假象。

如對方尚未發覺,就1-2日後,推高至31元,維持競價水平至30.8999-31元。
持之以恆,推高匯價,使MYR貶值。

若果敵國知悉,進行反收購,經濟戰便需要考慮中止。
若果大量商人得悉,前來競價,便停止收購,但市場匯價已經被推高至28價位。當情況到了這一步,純粹是角色從我員轉移至商人手中。
過了數日後,商人大幅減少至寥寥無幾,又再發動經濟戰,周而復始。


經濟戰優點有三
第一, 主動性
經濟戰與實體戰不同,沒有防禦設施可建設,只能待有錢人上線,才能防禦。


第二, 機動性
當大量外來商人競價或國家出手,就離開吧,不像實體戰泥足深陷。

第三, 隱藏性
除非明顯的轉變,否則以馬來西亞為例,4隻小貓在搞外匯,政府未必知道。如掛單者眾,有心人亦要一個一個地點擊查國籍。



退市後,人家出手復甦,豈非徒勞無功?
筆者僅以3服兌換市場為例,今天19號才能重拾26.88價位,距離15號出事,足足花了5天時間。
我就不說F1美國匯價到現在尚未回到24.9599價位

傷口永遠是來得快,康復得慢,


政府出手強行穩定匯價,不就一了百了嗎?



前題是政府財政儲備穩健,筆者再以馬來西亞為例
這種情況之下,馬來西亞政府缺乏資金穩定匯率,我國甚至可以跟它打消耗戰,銀紙煲甜湯。



經濟戰將帶來那些影響?
正如之前所說,經濟戰會使貨幣幣值貶值,變相拖低了國家收入。
本國市場亦因貨幣貶值,利潤減少,而商人退出市場
本土生產者生產成本上升,難以競爭
工人變相工資下降,因而離開國家
全國購買力下降,無力購買物資抗戰(僅窮等人家)


回應讀者意見:
1. 工業沒有轉移給敵國,而僅僅是收稅權轉移給了敵國
同意。

2. 黑工/軍墾可以越過經濟戰影響
黑工並不是全部勞工,勞工市場比若7:3,即7成勞工受影響,而選擇離開本國工廠。


(待續)
筆者: Colands V Bismarck

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TCBC國會競選宣言 (11 years ago)

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