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Hi there! I started to play e-sim about 2 months ago. As a rookie with nothing better to do, I've found equipment merging really interesting and want to share some of my thoughts with you!
这个游戏里面新人可以做的事情实在有限，其中最有意思的事情大概就属合装了，尤其是裤子鞋子和护身符。我的朋友阿玛塔
amzta17212 最喜欢合裤子，而且每次合成的时候都只用一条裤子加两个其它装备，比如:
Specifically I 'd like to touch upon the merging of pants. Because my friend amzta likes to buy pants and merge them. He has a habit of using one pant + two other equipments for the merging. Like in the pics below:
看到阿玛塔的成（作）功（死），我也不由得跃跃欲试。可是很多老玩家说用三件同样的新装备合成才稳妥，不然会死的很难看。我应该听谁的呢？作为一个有勇气有担当的萌新，我决定自己找出答案！
Amzta is very successful at this which intrigues my curiosity: many veterans in e-sim advises me to only use 3 items of one kind to merge for pants/shoes/lucky charms. Are they absolutely right on this? I want to try to find the answer, and hopefully shed some light on rookies who share the same confusions with me!
合成Q2裤子究竟用几条Q1裤子比较好呢？
How many Q1 pants shall we use to merge for Q2?
为了方便讨论，我想先做些假设：
1. 合装时只用Q1裤子和Q1头盔两种材料。
2. 材料的来源都是拍卖场，合成的产品也都拿去拍卖。
To facilitate this discussion, I want to make some assumptions before we go on:
1. We only use Q1 pants and Q1 helmets as materials for merging.
2. All materials for merge are bought from AH, and all products from merging are sold in AH.
在这样的情形之下，合出的产品只可能是Q2裤子或者Q2头盔，概率如下：
In the assumed scenario, the merging producted can only be Q2 pants or Q2 helmets, with the chances as following:
| Merge 合成 | chance of pants 出裤子概率 | chance of helmets出帽子概率 |
| 1pant+2helmets一裤两帽 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| 2pants+1helmet两裤一帽 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| 3pants三裤 | 1 | 0 |
我写文章的时候拍卖场看到Q1头盔的价格大概在0.1g，Q2头盔是0.6g。如果我们把Q1裤子成本视为5g，q2裤子视为20g。那么合出裤子和头盔所得盈利如下表：
While I was writing I took a look at the AH, where I saw Q1 helmets are sold at about 0.1g, Q2 helmet about 0.6g. If we further assume the average price of Q1 pants being 5g, and Q2 pants being 20g, we can then calculate the profits we could make out of each cases:
| Merge合成 | cost on pants裤子成本 | cost on helmets帽子成本 | cost on merging合成费 | profit@pant合出裤子利润 | profit@helmets合出帽子利润 | |
| 1pant+2helmets一裤两帽 | 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 20-5-0.5=14.5 | 0.6-5-0.5=-4.9 | |
| 2pants+1helmet两裤一帽 | 10 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 20-2*5-0.4=9.6 | 0.6-2*5-0.4=-9.8 | |
| 3pants三裤 | 15 | 0 | 0.3 | 20-3*5-0.3=4.7 | N/A |
通过上面这两个表格我们可以求出不同情况下盈利的数学期望：
WIth these two tables above, we can calculate the expected values of profit in each case listed.
2pants+1helmet2裤+1帽: 9.6*0.67-9.8*0.33=3.198
3pants3裤: 4.7
再用盈利除以成本就可以算出三种方法的盈利率：
If we go ahead and calculate the profit rate in each case by dividing profit over total cost, we get:
2pants+1helmet2裤+1帽 :3.102/10.4=0.298;
3pants 3裤: 4.7/15.3=0.307
这样看来，用三个裤子合成的方法似乎确实比较划算呢！
After comparison, the 3-pants-merging plan does seem to have some advantages economically!
可是问题又来了：Q1卖5g，Q2卖20g的设定只是我的主观印象，这两个数据本身也只是个数学期望。假如市场上Q2价格的实际期望是17G，那么上面计算的结果也会产生相应的变化：
However, if we look back to the very beginning, the price values of Q1 and Q2 pants are merely based on my objective impressions. They themselves are expected values. If the real expected value of Q2 pant price in AH is 17G (in comparison to 20G), the conclusions could become different. Actually, with the new value for Q2 pant price, the profit rates become:
2pants+1helmet2裤+1帽：0.114
3pants 3裤：0.111
这个时候，用两个裤子+一个帽子的策略就比用三个裤子更划算了。
Now that the 2-pants plan works slightly better than the 3-pant one.
通过这个例子我们可以看出，合成新装备的最佳策略并不一定是使用三个一样的低级装备。具体哪种方案更好与各级裤子的市场估价有关系。而准确地估价则是做出正确判断的关键。我的分析都是建立在有关用Q1裤子合成Q2的讨论之上，我自己也没有合成过Q2以上的裤子。不过希望这篇文章能够对和我一样曾经迷茫过的萌新们有所帮助吧。
This case study tells us that the 3-pant merging plan is not necessarily always the best plan economically. It depends heavily on the expected value of pants at different qualities on AH. To make the best decision, we have to have a precise estimation of these expected values. My discussion in this article is entirely based on merging Q1 to Q2. I've never merged pants higher than Q2, but I hope it can help rookies like me who were once confused by this problem.
另外，我想在这里做一个市场调研，不知道大家对现在的Q2裤子平均价格怎么看？如果投票的人足够多，我想应该可以达到贴近真实数值的效果。到时候我会统计出这个数据并更新这篇文章。
BTW, I want to do a little market survey here. What is YOUR expected value of Q2 pants on AH right now? If I got enough input,it could be a solid approximation of the real value. I'll update this value and this article by that time.
(包已排到17Lლ(・ω・ლ))
All the best,
jkelvis
About the game:
USA as a world power? In E-Sim it is possible!
In E-Sim we have a huge, living world, which is a mirror copy of the Earth. Well, maybe not completely mirrored, because the balance of power in this virtual world looks a bit different than in real life. In E-Sim, USA does not have to be a world superpower, It can be efficiently managed as a much smaller country that has entrepreneurial citizens that support it's foundation. Everything depends on the players themselves and how they decide to shape the political map of the game.
Work for the good of your country and see it rise to an empire.
Activities in this game are divided into several modules. First is the economy as a citizen in a country of your choice you must work to earn money, which you will get to spend for example, on food or purchase of weapons which are critical for your progress as a fighter. You will work in either private companies which are owned by players or government companies which are owned by the state. After progressing in the game you will finally get the opportunity to set up your own business and hire other players. If it prospers, we can even change it into a joint-stock company and enter the stock market and get even more money in this way.
In E-Sim, international wars are nothing out of the ordinary.
Become an influential politician.
The second module is a politics. Just like in real life politics in E-Sim are an extremely powerful tool that can be used for your own purposes. From time to time there are elections in the game in which you will not only vote, but also have the ability to run for the head of the party you're in. You can also apply for congress, where once elected you will be given the right to vote on laws proposed by your fellow congress members or your president and propose laws yourself. Voting on laws is important for your country as it can shape the lives of those around you. You can also try to become the head of a given party, and even take part in presidential elections and decide on the shape of the foreign policy of a given state (for example, who to declare war on). Career in politics is obviously not easy and in order to succeed in it, you have to have a good plan and compete for the votes of voters.
You can go bankrupt or become a rich man while playing the stock market.
The international war.
The last and probably the most important module is military. In E-Sim, countries are constantly fighting each other for control over territories which in return grant them access to more valuable raw materials. For this purpose, they form alliances, they fight international wars, but they also have to deal with, for example, uprisings in conquered countries or civil wars, which may explode on their territory. You can also take part in these clashes, although you are also given the opportunity to lead a life as a pacifist who focuses on other activities in the game (for example, running a successful newspaper or selling products).
At the auction you can sell or buy your dream inventory.
E-Sim is a unique browser game. It's creators ensured realistic representation of the mechanisms present in the real world and gave all power to the players who shape the image of the virtual Earth according to their own. So come and join them and help your country achieve its full potential.
Invest, produce and sell - be an entrepreneur in E-Sim.
Take part in numerous events for the E-Sim community.
