Esim - 中国税收与货币状况分析报告及政策调查(140726)
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一,总体概况:

1,EC日税收总额约为1100CNY,按官方规定汇率0.05G计算,价值约55G;个人认为这个水平是偏高的,但仍有潜力可挖。

2,EC当日的国库储备金为520.79G + 10326.15CNY;个人认为结余偏大,没有能够有效地转化成其他方面的优势。

2,EC货币市场日成交金额为609.09G + 3209.71CNY(按周均汇率折算为约15380CNY),对比e波兰的1101.43G + 9218.43PLN(按周均汇率折算为约27650PLN),以及e美国的435.31G + 4990.87USD((按周均汇率折算为约15810USD),EC的货币市场不算活跃。


二,税收基本情况分析:

1,EC目前总税收中的82.3%来自于工资税,工资税915CNY中的891CNY来自于武器和铁2个产业,从这里可以看出,铁和武器是EC目前税收的支柱,提供了约80%的财政收入;其余增值税、进口税和所有其他类型的所得税加起来也只占20%。

2,EC目前所得税分地区统计,巴铁一地的所得税就占了EC全部所得税收入的46.5%,为425CNY;其次以色列滨海平原提供了170CNY所得税;再次是中国西北部,93CNY;其余地区均不超过40CNY。

3,EC目前的税率总体上是轻增值税(资源类0%,成品2-3%)、重进口税(基本20%)、中所得税(基本10%);对比e波兰的轻增值税(资源类0%,其他2%)、轻进口税(全2%)、重所得税(基本20%)和e美国的轻增值税(资源类0%,其他2%)、轻进口税(全1%)、中所得税(基本10%),EC的总体税率水平略高,主要高在进口税方面。


三,货币市场基本情况分析:

1,我认为,本国的货币需求(即本国货币市场活跃程度)在一定程度上能够反映本国商品(含劳务)市场的繁荣程度;而本国的货币需求与本国生产力的比例关系,则由本国的各项税率来调节。

2,因为生产力数据可以在一定程度上代表该国市场的供给水平,所以用生产力数据对比(EC : e波兰 : e美国 = 3 : 6 : 2)来与货币市场日成交比量(EC : e波兰 : e美国 = 3 : 5.5 : 3)做对比,说明相对来说,e波兰的税收政策比EC在刺激市场的需求方面效果略差一点;而e美国的税收政策相对于EC和e波兰,在刺激本国市场的需求方面有较大优势。

3,因为活跃人口数据可以在一定程度上代表该国市场的需求水平,所以用活跃人口数据对比(EC : e波兰 : e美国 = 3 : 3.27 : 1.08)来与货币市场日成交比量(EC : e波兰 : e美国 = 3 : 5.5 : 3)作对比,说明相对来说,EC的税收政策在刺激市场供给方面效果远远差于e波兰和e美国,而e美国的税率又比e波兰优秀的多。

3,结合二.3关于EC、e波兰和e美国的具体税率分析可以看出,所得税和进口税税率较高都不利于繁荣本国国内市场,其中尤其以进口税的影响更大,就现有数据分析,如果免除进口税税率,EC的市场活跃程度应当可以预期出现50%-200%的提高。

4,进一步考察货币市场中的买卖平衡情况,CNY的买卖比约为4比1,PLN和USD则都是2比1,可以很明显的看出,当前EC的货币供需比e波兰和e美国使得货币更不平衡,这种不平衡体现出的无疑是EC国内市场的封闭性,这种封闭性导致持有CNY无利可图,减少了CNY的货币需求,事实上隐性的减少了EC政府的财政收入。

5,接下来还可以用活跃人口数据与货币市场纯买入数据相比,考察3国税率在吸引额外消费能力方面的相对优劣;或是用生产力数据与货币市场纯卖出数据相比,考察3国税率在吸引生产能力方面的相对优劣,结论都是一致的,e美国最优,e波兰和EC各有优劣。


四,结论:

无论是从繁荣市场的考虑出发,或者从增加货币需求角度出发,又或是考虑为本国吸引更多额外的消费和生产能力,都应该对EC现有的税率安排作出一定的调整。



五,具体建议:

1,第一步,从稳健的态度出发,我认为目前可以实验性的降低所有非武器、铁行业的进口税和工资税,进口税一律下调至2%,工资税下调至5%;铁和武器行业因为目前是EC经济的支柱产业,应该暂时不做调整,待观察其他行业减税后对EC各项经济数据带来的变化,如果分析结果支持减税的效果,再进行第二步。

2,第二步,武器和铁行业的进口税调降至5%,其他行业进口税调降至1%;武器和铁行业工资税调降至6%-8%,其他行业工资税调降至0%;而后继续观察效果,根据具体效果再研究下面进一步优化税制的方案。

3,从稳健的态度出发,税制改革应当以税收总额不降低到现有1100CNY水平的70%以下为红线,尽量在繁荣市场的改革过程中不要影响到EC政府行使原有的主要政策和功能。






以上政策建议在此征求各位EC议员的意见,烦请填写后反馈告知MarkJob:

对于分步试点推行减税改革的政策建议,您作为EC议员的基本态度是(赞成/反对)?

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