Esim - Was I right about Poland's collapse?
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Twenty one days ago, I posted an article entitled On Europe's future and Poland's possible collapse which managed to make it to the Global trends but was met with relatively tepid reception from Primera. Back then, Poland was a member of the now-defunct Magnum Pactum; an ally of one of the world's powers, Lithuania; and perfectly kept Russia safe under its authority.



In that article, I discussed how I foresee Poland's future collapse. These were some of the arguments I provided:

the country (Poland) remains vulnerable to security threats and the chances of its neighbors secretly forging an alliance with Russia to contain Poland's military strength is not at all impossible

Poland's alliance with Lithuania is crucial for both countries

Poland's submissiveness to US could be dangerous.


After the article was published, these events happened:

1. Poland and Lithuania decided to split.




I mentioned in another article of mine the possible implications of the split.

The Polish-Lithuanian split. For the first time in a long time, Poland and Lithuania decided to go their separate ways. How will this affect the balance of power in Europe? What will be Lithuania's next move? Are we going to see a Lithuania-initiated alliance that includes powerful and neutral European nations? Or will it join an existing alliance to balance out power in the region? One thing's for sure though. As long as Lithuania remains neutral, its security is at risk.


Indeed, Lithuania remained neutral and shortly after the break-up, Poland invaded Lithuania with the war still ongoing up to now.

2. DoW was created. Poland joined and was dragged in the wars of the alliance's members.




And what did I say about DoW?

While the Declaration of War is currently the most powerful alliance in the world in terms of strength , it is still relatively less powerful than the alliance it succeeded. And although words have been said regarding how much more solid DoW is than MP, it is still too early to say. Words could be... just words.


So let us see what's happening now.



Russia is slowly taking back its territories from Poland while the latter is busy with its war with ex-ally, Lithuania.

But if Poland is more powerful than Russia, how is it possible that Russia is winning?



There you go.

Where was I right?

- That the relations of Lithuania and Poland are crucial for both countries.
- That DoW is not solid. In fact, it's futile.
- That Poland failed to take charge and allow herself to be dragged in relentless warring which did not only created more enemies for her but has put her territorial integrity in jeopardy.

What will happen next?

- The end of DoW (which translates to a victory for UN)
- Poland's revamp of its foreign policies and relations. Needs to gather herself together
- A NAP between US and UN, start of more "civil" relations between the two (though the Canada rhetoric remains in question)
- Possible talks between Poland and Lithuania (though I'm pessimistic Lithuania would consider it)
- Who knows? It's Primera. Anything can happen.

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