Esim - México aportaría nuevo récord en producción de granos
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La producción mundial de granos forrajeros para el ciclo 2012-2013 podría ser de 1,389.2 millones de toneladas, 6% por arriba del ciclo anterior, lo que establecería un nuevo récord, señalaron autoridades federales del sector.

De esta producción, México podría aportar 21 millones de toneladas que sumadas a la importación de 9.3 millones, representaría un consumo de 29.7 millones de las cuales, 13.5 serían para consumo forrajero e inventarios finales, de 1.9 millones de toneladas.

De acuerdo con un balance de la Aseguradora de Servicios Comerciales para la Comercialización Agropecuaria (ACERCA), la producción mexicana fue estimada por el Departamento de Agricultura de los Estados Unidos (USDA).

ASERCA indicó que en su más reciente reporte sobre las estimaciones agrícolas de oferta y demanda mundial, la producción de maíz, considerado como el principal grano forrajero del mundo, podría obtener una producción de 945.8 millones de toneladas.

Esta cantidad representaría 75.3 millones de toneladas por encima del ciclo 2011-2012, lo que significa un récord por sexto año consecutivo.

La producción de maíz de los Estados Unidos se proyecta en 375.68 millones de toneladas, en tanto que la del resto del mundo se ubica en 570.10 millones de toneladas.

De acuerdo con ASERCA, los principales aumentos se esperan en Argentina, México, Canadá, Sudáfrica, China y Ucrania.

Con relación al trigo, oferta mundial para el ciclo 2012-2013 se proyectó que sea 2% menor a la del año pasado.

La producción mundial se estima en 677.56 millones de toneladas, de las cuales 61.11 corresponden a los volúmenes generados por Estados Unidos.

Se prevé que los países que formaban la ex Unión Soviética, los de la Unión Europea, Australia, Marruecos, Argentina, Turquía y Pakistán sean los que produzcan menos trigo que en otros años.

El USDA también señaló que la producción mundial de soya se proyectó en 271.4 millones de toneladas, cerca de 15% por encima del ciclo anterior.

La producción para Argentina se estima en 55 millones, 12.5 millones más que en el ciclo 2011/12 debido a que se esperan mejores rendimientos y una mayor superficie destinada a este cultivo como resultado de los altos precios.

Para Brasil se prevé una producción histórica de 78 millones de toneladas, 13 millones más que el año previo.

En contraste, en China se espera una producción de 13.1 millones de toneladas, lo que significa una reducción del 0.4 por ciento, con respecto al año anterior.

Es probable que en aquellos granos, en donde la producción alcance niveles récord, la tendencia de precios sea a la baja, mientras que en el caso de la soya, donde se espera una menor oferta, la tendencia es todavía incierta.


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