Esim - México vs Brasil
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El monto del comercio entre Brasil y México durante los últimos 10 años suma 9,000 millones de dólares. Tan sólo en el 2011 el comercio entre ambos países alcanzó un valor de 1,200 millones de dólares. Pareciera mucho y que el avance en intercambio comercial entre ambas economías es muy grande, pero cuando lo medimos contra su nivel comercial total, la cifra es pequeña.

Si bien es cierto que el valor de las exportaciones mexicanas expresadas en bienes es mayor que el valor de las exportaciones de Brasil, en servicios Brasil tiene mayores volúmenes comerciales. El saldo actual es que México tiene un comercio mundial de 300,000 millones y Brasil de 210,000 millones.

El comercio de México representa para Brasil 1.5% y el comercio de Brasil representa para México 1 por ciento. Niveles muy pobres para las dos economías más grandes del continente.

Es evidente que el comercio entre México y Brasil no es grande y no se fomenta, y ambos países compiten cada año por los mercados internacionales más importantes. Si bien México tiene claro que su principal mercado es Estados Unidos, representando 78% de sus exportaciones, Brasil ha decidido diversificar su economía encontrando tres mercados: China, Europa y Estados Unidos.

¿Qué va a suceder cuando ambos países decidan firmar un tratado de libre comercio? Sucederá que México usará a Brasil como plataforma para ampliar sus niveles comerciales y comenzar su diversificación comercial con China y Europa, principalmente.

Esta intención es evidentemente sana para la economía mexicana, dado que reduciría sus niveles de dependencia comercial con Estados Unidos.

Lo que buscaría Brasil con el acuerdo comercial sería mejorar sus términos de intercambio con el mundo y acceder en mejores condiciones a Estados Unidos.

Sus industrias militares y automotrices se verían claramente beneficiadas con un acuerdo comercial con México porque accederían a Estados Unidos con menores costos y menores restricciones aduanales.

Los dos países más grandes de Latinoamérica podrían verse enfrascados en una batalla por los mercados, que podría resultar en una relación bilateral no muy cómoda para ambas economías. Una solución muy práctica para que no tengamos una América Latina polarizada por el comercio sería que ambas naciones piensen seriamente en aumentar el comercio intrarregional y que fomenten el mercado interno latinoamericano.


Previous article:
México, noveno exportador de cosméticos: Canipec (13 years ago)

Next article:
México crece más que la economía mundial (13 years ago)

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