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Avoid vs Crit simulation (Statistics)
Posted 1 year ago by
Moderated_658016    
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Curiosity to see what would a simulation of avoid VS critical set show has arisen.

Admin has pointed the Q7 stats, so we would be able to upgrade max to 19.7%, miss to 9.4% and avoid/crit to 8.4%

Basic damage of 1000/1500 has been used



Critical set:
2x miss
3x 8.4% critical
11x 19.7% max


Critical-miss set:
1x miss
3x 8.4% critical
12x 19.7% max


Avoid set:
2x miss
3x 8.4% critical
7x 19.7% max
4x 8.4% avoid


Avoid-miss set:
1x miss
3x 8.4% critical
8x 19.7% max
4x 8.4% avoid


Upper sets give the following output:



Critical set:

37.7% critical
216.7 max increasement leading to 2875 AVERAGE HIT
5% avoid

Critical-miss set:
3.05% miss chance
37.7% critical
236.4 max increasement leading to 3023 AVERAGE HIT
5% avoid

Avoid set:

37.7% critical
137.9 max increasement leading to 2284 AVERAGE HIT
38.6% avoid

Avoid-miss set:
3.05% miss chance
37.7% critical
157.6 max increasement leading to 2432 AVERAGE HIT
38.6% avoid


A simulation of 100000 times hitting with one medkit (20 limits) has been done in order to see the average expected dmg and avoids count. The resultsare as follows:
Avoid-miss set:

109100 average damage per medkit
12.55 average avoids count per medkit

Avoid set:

102400 average damage per medkit
12.55 average avoids count per medkit

Critical-miss set:

87600 average damage per medkit
1.05 average avoids count per medkit

Critical set:

83350 average damage per medkit
1.05 average avoids count per medkit



Conclusion 1: avoid makes 21.67% more damage than critical
Conclusion 2: avoid will use 32 berserks compared to 21 berserks to the critical
Conclusion 3: avoid burns 160 weapons VS 105 for the critical which is almost 52% more weapons for 21.6% more damage
Conclusion 4: critical-miss set is 5.1% better than critical without miss which kinda makes sense to risk considering it is used for last 10 seconds of the round
Conclusion 5: avoid-miss set is 6.5% better than avoid without miss which kinda makes sense if you are building walls
Conclusion 6: avoid set is 16.8% better than crit-miss one
Conclusion 7: avoid-miss set is 24.5% better than crit-miss one
Conclusion 8: crit-miss set's berserk is 24.7% better than avoid-miss one for T1 fighting


Gold
Gold
Gold
Gold
Gold
Gold
Gold
Gold


SAME simulation was done but with the usage of a pain dealer which for both sets increases the critical to 75.4%. Here are the results:


Avoid-miss set:
139000 average damage per medkit

Avoid set:
130500 average damage per medkit

Critical-miss set:
111600 average damage per medkit

Critical set:
106150 average damage per medkit


Conclusion: avoid-miss makes 24.5% more damage than critical-miss

Gold cost
Avoid : 160 q5 weapons + 10 food + 10 gift
Critical : 105 q5 weapons + 10 food + 10 gift
With current prices Leads to:
160*0.38 + 10*0.38 + 10*0.15 = 66.1‬ Gold

105*0.38 + 10*0.38 + 10*0.15 = 45.2 Gold

Which is kinda 42.4% more expensive. In servers that are not speed one and don't have NPC massive avoid sets usage burns the Q5 stock fast and it leads to inflation of the prices of the weapons.


P.S. Simulation is done via html file containing 73 rows ehehehe
P.S 2 Those stats could mean nothing if you are going to fight against the script fighters which do like 50-60 berserks every 10 seconds

Previous article:
Avoid vs Crit simulation (1 year ago)

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