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三 解放战争研究的5重境界——外篇

影评到这里其实已经写完了。接下来,我想谈谈影片之外的解放战争,从另一个角度夸夸徐克的明智,或者徐克的额外运气。

1 好人?坏人?

几代人以来,中国人对解放战争的第一印象是什么?正是徐克这一版电影的叙事风格——解放军是好人,国民党兵是坏人。好人为老百姓打仗,英勇无畏;坏人为反动势力看家护院,战战兢兢。人多的时候,坏人偶尔会赢,但只要解放军集中兵力或是擒贼擒王干掉反动军官,战局立刻就是一边倒。至于为什么解放军是好人?为什么国军坏人多还要打败仗?为什么只要干掉军官,坏人就一哄而散?看电影、听故事的小孩子不会想那么多。甚至许多成人也持类似的看法。反正是几十年前的旧事,反正“好人”最后赢了,搞那么清楚干啥呢?

2 土改保卫胜利果实?

第二重印象就要理性一些。因为小孩子谈感情,成年人要谈理性,谈利益,抢我利益的是坏人,一起分享利益才的是好人。中学课本也好,严肃的纪录片和电影也好,谈到解放战争都要点出土改这个要害。指出解放军站在农民一边,替他们抢来了地主的土地,保卫土改成果。所以得道多助,农民支持解放军,愿意参加解放军保卫胜利果实。国民党军则站在地主一边,保护反动势力,打到哪里都是四面树敌。当时的中国是个落后农业国,大多数人生活在农村,其中的大多数是贫农,解放军站在大多数人一边,大多数人支持解放军,战争结果不言而喻。迄今为止,这套以土改为中心的解释还是官方的主流宣传词,是多数影视编剧的政治出发点,是受过义务教育的新一代人听到的最普遍说法。

以土改为中心的简化社会模型咋一听很有道理,但只要想一下就能发现许多逻辑问题。其一,多数人支持并不构成胜利的充分条件,历史上均田免粮的造反者多了,成功的没有几个。其二,许多地方的土地矛盾并没有那么严重,常常找不出占有多数土地的像样地主,或是是荒地广阔,土地本身不构成主要矛盾。第三,城里没有地主,共产党虽然反对官僚资本,但也没有许诺要把资产分给工人,但共产党在大多数城市也获得了支持。

再细细推敲,还有一个政治上不很正确,算术上却无可辩驳的说辞可以用来反对这第二重解释:

首先,解放军有上百万人,农民参军不过是给解放军增加了百万分之一的力量,“保卫胜利果实”这个目标因此增加了百万分之一的胜率。但对自家来说,减少一个壮劳力,土地会减产,房子没人修补,和邻居争利益会挨欺负,这是100%会发生的事实。算利益,为何农民家庭愿意以派壮劳力从军、交公粮为代价,换取那百万分之一的胜率?为何农民在国民党军到来之时,会冒死加入民兵打游击?

稍加分析,就能发现“保卫胜利果实”最多只能作为征兵、征粮的宣传说辞,实践起来解放军不可能主要指望志愿兵和农民的捐献打仗,胜利必然依赖更踏实的机制。对于有社会经验的成年人来说,想到这一点不难,甚至在读书时我就见过同学质疑历史老师的说法。解放战争的胜利必须用更合理的方式来解释。

3 不是我们无能,是共军太狡猾?

既然无法从基本力量上解释,正常的想法自然是归于高明的计策。三十六计、三国演义、田忌赛马、说岳全传……几百年的世俗文学熏陶下来,要说服普通人相信共产党的胜利源于“谋略”并不难。更何况“谋略”这东西不仅适合用来写文艺作品,也适合充当茶余饭后的谈资。自从80年代官方政治-历史教育受到普遍怀疑以来,只要是谈到解放战争乃至共产党整个革命历程,随便哪个健谈的人都可以谈战史谈的口沫纷飞,内容不外乎是这样:

“太祖压服林彪,让东野先打锦州真高明!要让蒋介石先巩固了锦州,还不知道是毛主席还是蒋主席呢!”

“刘邓大军南下,被堵在黄河边。刘伯承弄了几千个葫芦,扣上钢盔飘过河。国军还以为是共军强渡,拼命开枪开炮,刘伯承趁机就从别处过去了”

“粟裕算准了杜聿明要往西跑。要不是粟裕想的清楚,让杜聿明带几十万人跑到江南,这长江就过不去了”

“蒋介石的侍从室里全是共谍,国防部机密文件都提前让共产党看到了。为这一仗,共产党提前几十年就埋了钉子,要不怎么赢的这么容易……”


当然,这是水平比较低的讨论,资料来源往往是标着“解密”、“真相”的地摊杂志。随着讨论的深入,其中也会产生翻战史,看地图,查外国资料的专家,能做出许多上层次的分析,严密程度、探讨问题的深度远远超出了三国演义和地摊文学。比如:解放战争初期,蒋介石该不该把精锐部队派往东北?如果杜聿明在四平取胜后勉力渡过松花江,林彪是否会丧失回旋空间?彭德怀攻榆林前后,双方各自犯了哪些错误?渡江战役后,国民党军是否意识到二野主力被低调派往西南?许多解答整理出来还颇有道理,值得一看。

但是,无论分析水平高低、严密与否。在这一系列的探讨中,设想的解放战争都是一连串的对弈。太祖、蒋介石、白崇禧、彭德怀等人分别在不同的棋盘上落子,共产党棋高一着,胜多负少,所以最终赢得了胜利。对于这一层次的研究者来说,不论最后总结是“毛主席用兵真如神”还是“共军太狡猾,从抗日时就保存实力、潜伏共谍”,他们实际上都得出了同样的结论。甚至官方的许多宣传,也往往把胜利的很大一部分原因归结为领导人的高瞻远瞩,计无不中。电影严肃如《大决战》系列的潜台词正是如此。

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