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央行一般不会直接给企业放贷,而是通过商业银行放贷。商业银行会给什么样的企业贷款呢?显然是有偿还能力的企业。企业从银行贷款,不能去给老板买豪车、办婚礼,必须要有投资项目才能拿到钱,比如建工厂、雇人手、盖房子、搞研发,用贷款形成一份比贷款本身更大的资产,这才能用盈利偿还本息;或者至少用这份新的资产当抵押,借到一笔新的、更大的的贷款,还掉旧债,才不至于破产。

的确有一些企业没能完成这个任务就破产了,但从整个社会的角度说,央行发出的贷款最终在大多数企业形成了更大的生产能力,或是让这些企业能制造更好、成本更低的产品。社会总的生产能力和货币供应同步增加,就不会有失控的通胀。这些新增生产能力意味着更大的社会总资产,正好也提供了更多的抵押,让央行有理由向全社会(包括政府)“借”出更多的钱。这就是实体经济和信用货币发行之间的配合,是大部分国家竭力保持(或达到)的经济状态。“钱”就是在这个动态过程中多起来的。反过来说,要是央行没能完成释放更多贷款的任务,钱就会在动态过程中流回央行,形成钱荒。

3 有工业才有中央银行

要实现这个理想状态,有一个“潜在的”前提必须满足——整个社会(包括企业、个人、政府)可以通过投资来获得更大的生产能力。这在今天是个不言自明的常识,但在过去的几千年乃至上万年,在整个农业社会,这可是个稀罕事。

农业社会的特性是稳定,尤其是在中国这种很早就达到数千万人口,人多地少的发达农业社会,典型的经济模式是大部分人口当农民种地,除了自己吃饭之外还能生产比例不高的剩余粮食,用来供养一些手工匠人、商人、军人、官僚和贵族。几乎所有工作都要靠肌肉(人和畜类)来驱动,所有能开垦的土地都已经开垦、精耕细作。要增加一点点经济总量也几乎不可能。对已开垦土地新投入劳动力,增加的一点点产量甚至不够养活新增的人口,剩余粮食反而可能下降。

这说明,在农业社会,除非可以开辟新的未开发地区,否则向农民或手工匠人贷款意义不大。因为怎么贷款也改变不了用肌肉劳动,靠有限的土地亩产活命的事实。所以,大部分借款不是用来投资,而是用来救急的消费贷款。常说的“卖身葬父”就是这种情况。这种借款往往意味着兼并,因为偶然事故而借款的农民不得不把土地交给债主,自己变成佃农,甚至交出人身依附权变成奴仆。但这依然不提高整个社会的经济上限,最多是降低农民自身的消费,增加地主或当铺的利润,改变一下分配方式。

如果这个时代出现一个中央银行,以指数方式增加货币供应,那么无论这个货币是什么,是黄金还是纸币,都必然出现通货膨胀,货币贬值,直至经济崩盘。在全国推行纸币的宋、金、元,在美洲抢到天量黄金的西班牙帝国,都无法保持稳定的币值,只是用发钞(币)来代替一部分税收而已。所以农业社会不需要也没有现代意义上的中央银行。

工业社会结束了从肌肉→产品的生产方式,使用机器造产品,使用机器造机器成了新的经济模式。从这时起,用投资来促进生产才成为正常现象,企业普遍的贷款发展成为可能,政府每年都可以预期社会总产品比上一年多,从而多印一些钞票来满足使用。这就是中央银行存在的前提和必要性——有了指数增长的工业经济,才能(必须)有指数增长的钞票。

不过,人类社会的硬件进入工业社会,不等于软件也进入了工业社会。在工业革命之后的100多年,具体而言就是19世纪和20世纪前期,人类社会流行的恰恰是金(银)本位,有多少黄金印多少钱。如果金银等贵金属不增加,就不能随便增发钞票。这显然和工业经济迅速增长的现实不符,很容易出现钱不够用的问题,影响经济发展。

好在欧美等少数几个工业国正统治着全世界,可以开采全世界的黄金,可以从中国印度这种传统的富国连抢带骗地弄金银。所以贵金属总量增长的速度还算可以,能勉强追上19世纪全世界平均不到2%的经济增长率。等到殖民地瓜分完毕,金矿基本都得到开发,黄金的增长没那么容易了,工业增长率却不断上升,货币开始不太够用。具体来说,极限就是1910年以后,世界经济增长率从2%往3%艰难爬动的时代。等到增长率爬到差不多3%,地球也被瓜分完毕。工业经济再也不能从外部找钱(黄金)来保证经济增长,这个世界立刻爆发了世界大战,然后是大萧条。总之没钱就没利润,没利润就要打仗自杀。

两次世界大战之后,人类稍微变聪明了一点。认识到金银有限,而工业经济的增长无限,逐渐放弃了金本位制度,理直气壮地授权中央银行发行信用货币。无论其中有多少黑幕,给多少人间接制造了利益,悄悄偷走了多少人的财产,这个变化都是一个划时代的经济制度进步——源于农业时代的金融体系终于进入了工业时代。以至于经济学家威尔.罗杰斯说:人类有史以来有三项伟大的发明:火、轮子和中央银行。

仔细分析一下,威尔.罗杰斯的话的确不算太夸张:
人类在学会用火之前已经会打猎了,但学会用火意味着人类能充分利用打到的猎物,彻底超越其他食肉动物。即用火是史前时期的人类成熟的标志。
人类在学会制造轮子之前已经会种地,会组建政府了,但轮子大大降低了陆地运输的成本,把分散的地域性文化连接成统一的文明地区,轮子算是农业文明成熟的重要标志。(美洲文明没有轮子,靠羊驼和人力在各个地区之间运输,几百个西班牙人一来,各个地方势力对西班牙人消灭权力中心乐观其成,很快被打的分崩离析)
类似地,人类在发明中央银行之前已经发明了现代工业,但直到20世纪中期,基于信用货币建立中央银行,这才算正式承认财富来自工业经济,承认货币只是个符号,允许财富的标志——货币和工业经济同步增长。从这个角度说,以信用货币为基础的中央银行算是工业文明开始成熟的重要标志,有资格和轮子,和钻木取火并列。

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About the game:


USA as a world power? In E-Sim it is possible!

In E-Sim we have a huge, living world, which is a mirror copy of the Earth. Well, maybe not completely mirrored, because the balance of power in this virtual world looks a bit different than in real life. In E-Sim, USA does not have to be a world superpower, It can be efficiently managed as a much smaller country that has entrepreneurial citizens that support it's foundation. Everything depends on the players themselves and how they decide to shape the political map of the game.

Work for the good of your country and see it rise to an empire.

Activities in this game are divided into several modules. First is the economy as a citizen in a country of your choice you must work to earn money, which you will get to spend for example, on food or purchase of weapons which are critical for your progress as a fighter. You will work in either private companies which are owned by players or government companies which are owned by the state. After progressing in the game you will finally get the opportunity to set up your own business and hire other players. If it prospers, we can even change it into a joint-stock company and enter the stock market and get even more money in this way.


In E-Sim, international wars are nothing out of the ordinary.

"E-Sim is one of the most unique browser games out there"

Become an influential politician.

The second module is a politics. Just like in real life politics in E-Sim are an extremely powerful tool that can be used for your own purposes. From time to time there are elections in the game in which you will not only vote, but also have the ability to run for the head of the party you're in. You can also apply for congress, where once elected you will be given the right to vote on laws proposed by your fellow congress members or your president and propose laws yourself. Voting on laws is important for your country as it can shape the lives of those around you. You can also try to become the head of a given party, and even take part in presidential elections and decide on the shape of the foreign policy of a given state (for example, who to declare war on). Career in politics is obviously not easy and in order to succeed in it, you have to have a good plan and compete for the votes of voters.


You can go bankrupt or become a rich man while playing the stock market.

The international war.

The last and probably the most important module is military. In E-Sim, countries are constantly fighting each other for control over territories which in return grant them access to more valuable raw materials. For this purpose, they form alliances, they fight international wars, but they also have to deal with, for example, uprisings in conquered countries or civil wars, which may explode on their territory. You can also take part in these clashes, although you are also given the opportunity to lead a life as a pacifist who focuses on other activities in the game (for example, running a successful newspaper or selling products).


At the auction you can sell or buy your dream inventory.

E-Sim is a unique browser game. It's creators ensured realistic representation of the mechanisms present in the real world and gave all power to the players who shape the image of the virtual Earth according to their own. So come and join them and help your country achieve its full potential.


Invest, produce and sell - be an entrepreneur in E-Sim.


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