Esim - 【转载】国家战略应该如何制定
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甲. 一个国家的战略是由谁来决定?

一个国家的战略从来都是文人决定的,通常是总统或总书记,军人是不准做战略决定的,无论中国或外国都一样。二次大战几乎所有国家的战略都是文人决定,譬如罗斯福、邱吉尔、史达林和希特勒而不是麦克阿瑟、蒙哥马利、朱可夫和戈林,为什麼?

答案很简单:战略是为政治服务的,全部的考量都是政治,军事不过是达成战略目标的手段之一,决非全部。要知道除了军事的手段,还有外交手段、经济手段、文化手段...等等,它们每一样都是专业,有专业人才。在这些手段中,毫无疑问,军事手段是最直接、也是最重要的,因为它立竿见影。但是军人的思想通常比较偏颇和单一,他们把军功看成第一、都要做英雄,表现出追求近利。如果战略由军人来主导几乎无法避免会产生严重的问题和一发不可收拾的灾难性后果。日本在二次大战的失败就是例子,因为日本内阁是一个完全由军人把持和操纵的内阁。

乙. 一个非常正面的历史例子

大家都看过「Thirty seconds over Tokyo」(东京上空30秒)这个电影吧?这就是YST要举的真实历史的例子。

1941年12月07日,日本偷袭了珍珠港。美国不但遭受了重大的军事损失,更重要的是,美军士气和全国民心都变得非常低落。要知道,美国是一个两洋国家,海军是最重要的军种,如果没有强大的海军美国是无法对外作战的。

「珍珠港事件」后的美国在军力上完全落后於日本,那时候日本海军不但信心十足而且斗志高昂,它在太平洋是无敌的,美国即使要报仇雪恨也无门,因为制造大型军舰旷日费时,美军内部一片愁云惨雾,美国的民心丧失自信。罗斯福总统认为这种情况必须尽快扭转,美国的民心士气必须及早重振,这是第一要务。

但是怎麼重振民心士气呢?
罗斯福总统在会议上提出了解决办法,他的决定是:轰炸东京。

罗斯福的战略决定一说出来,在场的将军们都呆住了,个个面面相觑露出难色,面对日本的无敌海军这是一个不可能的任务啊!

这时候最感人的一幕出现了,罗斯福看到众将军们面部的难色,非常艰难地从椅子上站立起来(罗斯福罹患小儿麻痹,本来是站不起来的),他用行动支持他的语言:我如果能站起来,你们就能够轰炸东京。我们只要有坚强的意志,就没有什麼办不成的事。

将军们大受感动,决定接受这个挑战性的任务。后面的故事大家都知道了,杜立特中校(Jimmy Doolittle),一个有航空学术背景的飞行员,把B-25轰炸机改装,尽量减轻重量,抛弃所有防卫性的武器,譬如航炮,使它能够在不到五百英呎的航空母舰甲板上起飞。

在「珍珠港事件」仅仅四个月后,杜立特中校率领 B-25机群从航空母舰上起飞并且在日本完全没有设防和预料下成功轰炸了东京。这次轰炸震惊了整个日本,使得骄狂不可一世的日军心理受到严重创伤,使得日本首相羞愧必须亲自到皇宫面向天皇谢罪。美国则举国欢腾,士气大振。

从纯军事上的观点来看,这次轰炸东京的效果是很小的,因为B-25本来就是一种轻型轰炸机,再加上必须从航空母舰上起飞和必须多带油料,因此能够携带的炸弹非常少。职业军人从来不会去做这种事情,他们没有这方面的思考能力,认为不值得。

罗斯福总统这个轰炸东京的决定是纯粹的战略考量但不是纯军事的考量,这个决定不是从军事的方向思考,而是从政治方向思考,结果发挥了极大的战略效果,这是政治效果。但是这种战略考量不是职业军人能想到的,因为它的军事效果是微不足道的。这就是政治家和职业军人的不同。

专业训练决定思维方式。

丙. 军人的职责

读者一定会问:那麼军人的职责是什麼呢?
回答:军人只能服从国家领导人制定的战略,军人的职权最高只能做战役级别的规划与执行,军人的任务是运用军事手段达成领导人的战略目标。

所以军人是不能妄谈国家战略的,因为他们没有这方面的训练与背景。像「刀口」这种用战术上的困难来否定战略目标是非常可笑的。这种事如果发生在西方国家会遭到革职,譬如麦克阿瑟;在共产国家就更严重了。大陆人不是最钦佩史达林吗?还把他的像挂在天安门上。知道史达林处死多少将军吗?如果「刀口」是在史达林的红军服役,发表这种超越自己职位的不当言论和犯下这麼多低级的职业错误早就被拖出去见马克思了。

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In E-Sim we have a huge, living world, which is a mirror copy of the Earth. Well, maybe not completely mirrored, because the balance of power in this virtual world looks a bit different than in real life. In E-Sim, USA does not have to be a world superpower, It can be efficiently managed as a much smaller country that has entrepreneurial citizens that support it's foundation. Everything depends on the players themselves and how they decide to shape the political map of the game.

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