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小兔子白又白,两只耳朵竖起来,只化了东海的

以下是近日国防部关于东海防空识别区的规则公告:
中华人民共和国国防部根据中国政府关于划设东海防空识别区的声明,现将东海防空识别区航空器识别规则公告如下:
一、位于中华人民共和国东海防空识别区(以下简称东海防空识别区)飞行的航空器,必须遵守本规则。
二、位于东海防空识别区飞行的航空器,必须提供以下识别方式:
(一)飞行计划识别。位于东海防空识别区飞行的航空器,应当向中华人民共和国外交部或民用航空局通报飞行计划。
(二)无线电识别。位于东海防空识别区飞行的航空器,必须开启并保持双向无线电通信联系,及时准确回答东海防空识别区管理机构或其授权单位的识别询问。
(三)应答机识别。位于东海防空识别区飞行的航空器,配有二次雷达应答机的应当全程开启。
(四)标志识别。位于东海防空识别区飞行的航空器,必须按照有关国际公约规定,明晰标示国籍和登记识别标志。
三、位于东海防空识别区飞行的航空器,应当服从东海防空识别区管理机构或其授权单位的指令。对不配合识别或者拒不服从指令的航空器,中国武装力量将采取防御性紧急处置措施。
四、东海防空识别区管理机构是中华人民共和国国防部。
五、本规则由中华人民共和国国防部负责解释。
六、本规则自2013年11月23日10时起施行。

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这个声明充满了“必须”“应当”“配合”“服从指令”这样的命令型词语。按常理,这样强硬的口气应该是在领土、领海、领空这样的范围内应用。然而这个防空识别区圈出去很远,远远超出领海领空,也超过了海洋专属经济区,超过了中日中间线。

事情的起因,显然是美日搞的防空识别区。公众对防空识别区有概念,还是媒体报导日本的防空识别区划到中国家门口来了,距中国海岸线仅130公里。

但是中国的声明比美日的防空识别要求还要强硬,针对所有航空器,民机、军机、过路机全包了。全球的各类飞机真要按这个声明执行,等于承认中国对东海空域的管辖权了。

至少中国军机飞到日本的防空识别区里是不通报的,不可能接受这种安排。民机可以通报,因为本来就是要飞过日本领空,有没有这个识别区都要报。

所以,这个声明一出来,显然美日韩的军机不可能接受中国单方面宣布的识别区规则。派飞机来飞一圈,然后说我们用事实证明了,不接受你这个规则,这都是绝对可以预期的。美国没两天就派了B52飞机来故意违反规则,韩国也跟了,日本也会跟上。其实这些飞机以前也是这么飞的,甚至更过分。和81192王伟相撞的那个电子侦察机,都到中国领海边上了,根本不通报。

如果美日韩军机不来,或者来了却按中国国防部要求通报应答了,那就等于被中国打脸了,这是不可能的。所以为了不被打脸,肯定会来。这次是中国国防部主动惹事。

美日绝对会搞反打脸行动,国防部在发布声明之前就可以预期的,不可能幻想美日就接受了。那么为什么还要搞?我认为这是进攻性心态主导的结果。

第一,转变斗争模式,主动出招。这事是中国出招,美日接招。以前都是美日台韩搞事,中国去应对。有时还弄得很恼火,很屈辱,经常行游。这其实是弱国的作派,美国人会搞这种行游么?这事是中国主动划了一个大圈,对别人有各种要求,非常罕见。中国群众也不可能因为美国军机不通报就去行游,不会觉得有多大事。就是成天琢磨的人会觉得“被打脸”了,或者欢呼“美帝来打脸了”,都过于沉迷了。

第二,建立“不好惹”的形象。划了圈,还要求对方通报,就把对方的动作定性了。你在公海上飞,不通报我,也是对我的冒犯。别人心理上就会觉得,这人真横,不是好相与的。如果在公海上飞都是冒犯,中国都可以动怒,更不要说真侵犯中国利益了。人就会想,这么一个横人,如果真惹他了,会不会发了疯一样报复?不由自主的就会发毛。

第三,改变心理预期。想显示“不屈服中国”,在公海上飞就行了,B52擦边飞几下都一片欢呼。 这样,公众预期的就是这些边缘性事件,而不是美日钓鱼岛海空演习之类的刺激活。真要搞大事,公众会想,为啥搞“这么过分”,为啥不擦边飞下就够了?以后就经常为了防空识别区斗争,在公海上飞,通不通报中国成了焦点。不通报就是对抗中国成功,通报了就是服软了。时间一长就忘了以前是什么预期了。台独的忘了要台独,日本右派忘了要国有化钓鱼岛,美国忘了要封锁中国海空军。有时也会想起来,过会又忘了,反正是不流行了。跟着感觉走时间一长自己都习惯了。

第四,建立远期规划,给公众时间适应。要求对方通报,如果是准备飞进领空的民机,这是合理的。要求进来一点的军机、过路机报告,这还真有些霸权主义的意思,算是鸭霸的作派。现在别人是会这样想。中国后面要军机过去伴飞,搞些危险动作,保持炒作的力度。时间久了,人们就会适应了,感觉这片地区好象是中国划了个啥线。但中国军机伴飞多次,日本军机不敢到中国近海伴飞,中国划的识别区线就会比日本那个识别区线深入人心。慢慢人们就会觉得,这片地区是中国的势力范围。口头上不承认,但心理上会适应。国际上很多这种事,不会有明确条约说这片那片地是你当老大,但约定俗成就这么算了。

第五,建立样板,扩大到其它地区、其它事务。你强大了,就需要出来搞事,才能更好地维护、扩大自身利益。东海划了线,再到南海划。防空搞了,还可以搞经贸。划多了,人们就会默认,这是中国的势力范围。到这个势力范围里应该看中国脸色,否则会遭到中国力量的打击。GDP变第一,建十条航母,这些事是积累实力。但不可能光积攒家底,其它啥事也不做,人家就认你是强权了。你得出来搞些“一般国家”不敢干的事,而且干成它。强国不是你说啥人家听啥,那是旧时代的帝国主义,美帝都不这样了。强国是“利益”扩张得很远,啥事都有说道的,人虽然不是都听,但不得不考虑。中国以前是说“核心利益”,为了这些会死拼。但这个阶段已经过了,有很多利益不那么核心的,离得比较远的,也要去搞。

总的来说,我认为社会公众还不能正确看待中国,中外都是如此。主要是对中国急剧增加的实力没有适应,改变得太快。比如台湾日本民间就不知道中国军力到什么程度了,还指望日本海空军能压制中国。或者还以为美军有啥消灭中国海空军的计划。这都跟不上形势了。

现在的形势就是中国要靠军事经济综合实力强力扩张势力范围。扩张势力范围,是要惹事生非的。人家不同意,这不是你受辱,是可以预期的反应。但还是要扩,人家虽然不同意,但也不是白干的。时间一长效果就出来了。

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In E-Sim we have a huge, living world, which is a mirror copy of the Earth. Well, maybe not completely mirrored, because the balance of power in this virtual world looks a bit different than in real life. In E-Sim, USA does not have to be a world superpower, It can be efficiently managed as a much smaller country that has entrepreneurial citizens that support it's foundation. Everything depends on the players themselves and how they decide to shape the political map of the game.

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