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然而，给这个事情定性的媒体并未深入解释，为何日本军品出口会对中日关系造成巨大的影响？实际上这则新闻不能孤立对待，还须将它和此前中国红旗-9防空导弹竞标土耳其项目结合起来看。
上月土耳其国防部公布了防空导弹的竞标结果，中国的红旗-9导弹位列第一，理论上来说已经获得了土耳其新防空导弹合同。可是近日媒体又传出土耳其在美国和北约的压力下，或许会对这一项目重新竞标。早在上个月此消息公布时，笔者就在《博客天下》杂志的文章中提到，此项目中国未必能够最终拿下。从现在的情况来看，中国流标的概率非常大。不过即便如此，这也标志着中国的武器装备出口竞争力的提升，因为防空导弹的技术含量的确较高。在过去的几十年中，中国一直是低价值低技术含量武器出口国的代表，基本符合当时中国制造业的整体水平。随着中国整体工业水平的提升，近年来中国制造的产品已经开始具备国际竞争力，这得益于两点：
1.西方国家的制造业转移；
2.中国入世之后进入世界市场的门槛降低。
当然这背后还有中国着力发展制造业以及中国庞大的人口红利等诸多有利因素，军事工业产品的国际市场虽然具备一定的独特性，却也和一个国家的工业水平有着必然的关系。现代军用设备大部分制造规格和工艺已经与民用产品接近，中国庞大的民用制造业产能转移进入军工几乎是必然的。所以近年来中国的军事装备无论是核心技术还是加工工艺均已开始摆脱苏联风格，向欧美的精密、精美化发展，这基本与中国制造业的发展情况同步。
反观日本的制造业，二战后，同样走过了从粗糙仿制到精密设计制造的历程，并且早已经迈入发达国家的行列。其制造业仍旧是支柱产业之一，尽管近年来持续下滑，制造业仍旧占整体经济的19%左右。而英美这些已经完成了产业转移的发达国家，制造业仅占整体经济的12%左右。显然日本仍旧保持着不错的制造业产能，尤其是船舶、汽车等行业，仍旧属于世界排名靠前的国家。在整个西方阵营之中，同样具备较大制造业规模且较高技术水平的国家现在所剩无几，仅有日本、德国和后起之秀韩国。
从军火市场的角度来看，在经历了漫长的冷战红利期后（注：冷战后美苏等大国，由于军事压力的迅速降低，因此有大量当时较为先进的武器装备被低价抛售到国际军火市场，造成市场一段时间的繁荣之后陷入疲软），很多国家面临军事装备的更新换代，市场开始有了新的需求。其中南美、中亚、中东等地区均有大量新的军事采购需求，而亚太地区，尤其是南海及东亚地区由于局势渐趋紧张武器采购需求激增。在这种情况下，较为先进且价格合理的武器装备，必然有强大的市场。
欧美武器由于价格过于昂贵未必能够符合此类新兴市场的需求，俄罗斯近年来随着经济复苏，其武器装备出口的管控也趋向严谨，不仅价格有所提升，对技术转让也同样限制多多。中国技术水平的提高，成为这一市场较有竞争力的供应国，从土耳其的竞标就可以看出，如果综合考虑的话，中国武器确实具有相当不错的性价比。然而由于在国际上相对独立的地位，中国在武器出口方面受到各方面的政治限制较多。西方世界传统盟友很难最终做出采购中国武器的决定，即便它看起来是那么的价廉物美。美国显然不可能任由此市场出现长期空挡，那么，无非只有两个选择：
1.降低自身武器装备的价格；
2.找到另外一个或者多个可以替代中国的可靠盟友成为此类国家的供应商。
无论在任何市场，降价都是很不愿意做出的选择，那么在武器市场找到替代中国的伙伴就成为必然的结果。事实上，从本世纪初美国就已经对此有了认知，韩国军事工业就是在这一指导思想下获得了美国不错的支持。从制造业的角度来看，韩国同样为世界制造业大国，尤其在船舶工业和电子工业方面，已经进入世界一流水平。所以近年来韩国在国际军火市场的销售也开始发力，此前土耳其陆军的坦克和自行火炮订单就被韩国拿下。而泰国的新护卫舰订单，最终也很可能落入韩国之手。值得注意的是，在泰国的竞标中中国的054出口型护卫舰也曾参与，而泰国一直是中国武器出口的传统国家，所以韩国能够获得订单，绝不会仅凭低价策略。
当然，毕竟韩国总体体量和中国是无法相比的，那么再出现另外一个中国的竞争对手，是完全符合美国利益的。在美国诸多盟国之中，仅有以色列、日本等少数国家具备较强的军事装备制造能力。由于以色列的特殊国际情况，穆斯林国家几乎不可能采购任何以色列装备，那么日本就是最合适承担这一角色的国家。唯一的问题是，日本自造武器的采购成本非常昂贵。造成高成本的原因主要是，日本武器只能自产自销，而日本政府打算保留齐全的武器装备研发制造体系，那么采购武器的成本必然包含了保有足够多的产业工人及研发人员的开支。这就如同美国为了保有军用服装产能以满足世界大战需求，导致美军军服的采购成本远远高于外购。由于日本制造业的自动化程度较高，且过去的武器研发经费已经被自卫队消化，如果放开武器出口限制，日本武器很可能如同日本汽车一样成为性价比极高的产品。从这个角度来看，日本和韩国都是中国在未来军品市场上的最直接竞争对手。
有不少评论家认为，日本的军事出口受到美国的控制，不会轻易松口。事实上，早在2004年美国就已经给予日本爱国者-3型导弹的生产许可证，并且有消息证实美国并未对日本出口这种导弹做出特别限制。笔者认为，现阶段日本武器出口的主要限制恐怕并不在美国，而在于日本国内法律的限制，而安倍上台之后显然这个问题已经被解决了。
回到卷首提到的问题，为何日本军品出口会对中日关系造成巨大的影响？由于持续的政治冷淡，使得过去中日关系中主流的“政冷经热”变成了“政冷经冷”，近年来，日本已经对中国打经济牌有了很大的心理免疫力，所谓抵制日货运动对于日本政府而言毫无新鲜感。未来，中日制造业尤其是高技术高附加值的制造业，必然会成为竞争对手，而不是过去的互补依赖结构。在这种情况下，军备国际贸易恐怕会最先成为双方的战场，中国现在恐怕还未对此做好准备吧。
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About the game:
USA as a world power? In E-Sim it is possible!
In E-Sim we have a huge, living world, which is a mirror copy of the Earth. Well, maybe not completely mirrored, because the balance of power in this virtual world looks a bit different than in real life. In E-Sim, USA does not have to be a world superpower, It can be efficiently managed as a much smaller country that has entrepreneurial citizens that support it's foundation. Everything depends on the players themselves and how they decide to shape the political map of the game.
Work for the good of your country and see it rise to an empire.
Activities in this game are divided into several modules. First is the economy as a citizen in a country of your choice you must work to earn money, which you will get to spend for example, on food or purchase of weapons which are critical for your progress as a fighter. You will work in either private companies which are owned by players or government companies which are owned by the state. After progressing in the game you will finally get the opportunity to set up your own business and hire other players. If it prospers, we can even change it into a joint-stock company and enter the stock market and get even more money in this way.
In E-Sim, international wars are nothing out of the ordinary.
Become an influential politician.
The second module is a politics. Just like in real life politics in E-Sim are an extremely powerful tool that can be used for your own purposes. From time to time there are elections in the game in which you will not only vote, but also have the ability to run for the head of the party you're in. You can also apply for congress, where once elected you will be given the right to vote on laws proposed by your fellow congress members or your president and propose laws yourself. Voting on laws is important for your country as it can shape the lives of those around you. You can also try to become the head of a given party, and even take part in presidential elections and decide on the shape of the foreign policy of a given state (for example, who to declare war on). Career in politics is obviously not easy and in order to succeed in it, you have to have a good plan and compete for the votes of voters.
You can go bankrupt or become a rich man while playing the stock market.
The international war.
The last and probably the most important module is military. In E-Sim, countries are constantly fighting each other for control over territories which in return grant them access to more valuable raw materials. For this purpose, they form alliances, they fight international wars, but they also have to deal with, for example, uprisings in conquered countries or civil wars, which may explode on their territory. You can also take part in these clashes, although you are also given the opportunity to lead a life as a pacifist who focuses on other activities in the game (for example, running a successful newspaper or selling products).
At the auction you can sell or buy your dream inventory.
E-Sim is a unique browser game. It's creators ensured realistic representation of the mechanisms present in the real world and gave all power to the players who shape the image of the virtual Earth according to their own. So come and join them and help your country achieve its full potential.
Invest, produce and sell - be an entrepreneur in E-Sim.
Take part in numerous events for the E-Sim community.
